lördag 10 september 2011

G7 - mer snömos

Europas finansiella system står i brand. Vissa marknadsaktörer hade hoppats på en samordnad policyrespons (finanspolitik och centralbanker) redan denna helg. G7, på sedvanligt maner, lyckades istället enas kring en tunn kommuniké som genom att fortsätta att göra "för lite, för sent" ska lösa problemen samtidigt som den andas splittring... Hela G7-kommunikén finns att läsa hos Telegraph. Som jag skrev häromdagen: "Europas politiker tycks dock fortfarande vara fast beslutna att "rädda" den gemensamma valutan genom att eventuellt skapa en alldeles för liten facilitet som även när den blivit något mer flexibel, kommer att vara inflexibel.":

We are taking strong actions to maintain financial stability, restore confidence and support growth. In the US, President Obama has put forward a significant package to strengthen growth and employment through public investments, tax incentives, and targeted jobs measures, combined with fiscal reforms designed to restore fiscal sustainability over the medium term. Euro area countries are implementing the decisions taken on July 21 to address financial tensions, notably through the flexibilisation of the EFSF, reaffirming their inflexible determination to honor fully their own individual sovereign signatures and their commitments to sustainable fiscal conditions and structural reforms. Japan is implementing substantial fiscal measures for reconstruction from the earthquake while ensuring the commitment to medium-term fiscal consolidation.
G7 är ej heller eniga om hur finanspolitiken bör inriktas - vi ser åter en klyfta mellan Europa (åtstramning) och USA (stimulans):
Concerns over the pace and future of the recovery underscore the need for a concerted effort at a global level in support of strong, sustainable and balanced growth. We must all set out and implement ambitious and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation plans rooted within credible fiscal frameworks. Fiscal policy faces a delicate balancing act. Given the still fragile nature of the recovery, we must tread the difficult path of achieving fiscal adjustment plans while supporting economic activity, taking into account different national circumstances.
Vad gäller penningpolitiken lovar de att göra vad som krävs, vilket de förstås alltid gör. Mer likviditetsåtgärder kommer om det behövs, som om någon trodde något annat. Problemet är att banksystemen badar i kortsiktig likviditet. Det som skulle minska en hel del av Europaoron är långsiktig likviditet som t ex att ECB köper bank-obligationer, om det finns inget att läsa.
Monetary policies will maintain price stability and continue to support economic recovery. Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity to banks as required. We will take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets. In this context we reaffirm our commitment to implement fully Basel III.


Politiker - se glada ut, det kan de

Noyer (Banque de France) sammanfattar läget perfekt
It was really a meeting of great cohesion and force. There was a determination by everyone to meet challenges.      (Källa: Reuters

2 kommentarer:

  1. De finns de som håller med dig om att köpa bank-oblisar

    "But there are other ways in which the Bank could help. One quite attractive idea which the Bank has been exploring with the Treasury is that of so called "credit easing", which would be similar in some respects to QE but with significant differences. Instead of injecting new cash into the economy via the purchase of government bonds, the Bank of England would purchase ordinary banking credit.

    By targetting credit directly, the Bank of England would be going to the heart of the problem, which is that in a period of vicious deleveraging, there's both a problem with demand for credit and the supply of credit. Bankers tell me that risk aversion has reached a point which threatens another funding crisis, similar to the one that took place in the run up to the Lehman crisis. Interbank funding markets have not yet closed, in the way they did back then, but there is again severe distress."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100011868/if-the-band-of-england-is-going-to-do-more-qe-it-should-get-ultra-adventurous/

    SvaraRadera
  2. Tack för länken kriesse! Det finns så många problem i världen just nu så det är svårt att veta var man ska börja angripa dem. Det mest akuta problemet i Europa är att banker inte längre kan finansiera sig långsiktigt pga allmän misstro från marknaden, misstro som är relaterat till statliga finanser.

    Åtminstone detta finansieringsproblem kan lösas genom att centralbanken köper bank-obligationer, alternativt att trovärdiga stater (eller supra-nationals som EFSF) garanterar dessa obligationer.

    Sverige gjorde detta för att hjälpa bland annat Swedbank 2008. Länk:
    http://newsroom.swedbank.com/en/Press-releases1/Swedbanks-first-senior-unsecured-bond-issue-under-the-Swedish-states-guarantee-scheme/

    SvaraRadera